Goosehead Insurance Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

2OX Stock   119.60  3.55  2.88%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Goosehead Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 124.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.77. Goosehead Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Goosehead Insurance polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Goosehead Insurance as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Goosehead Insurance Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Goosehead Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 124.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.09, mean absolute percentage error of 6.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Goosehead Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Goosehead Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Goosehead Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern

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Goosehead Insurance Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Goosehead Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Goosehead Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 122.37 and 127.44, respectively. We have considered Goosehead Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
119.60
122.37
Downside
124.90
Expected Value
127.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Goosehead Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Goosehead Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.9383
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.0946
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0224
SAESum of the absolute errors127.7729
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Goosehead Insurance historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Goosehead Insurance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Goosehead Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Goosehead Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
117.07119.60122.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
107.64128.65131.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
108.86117.68126.50
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Goosehead Insurance

For every potential investor in Goosehead, whether a beginner or expert, Goosehead Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Goosehead Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Goosehead. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Goosehead Insurance's price trends.

Goosehead Insurance Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Goosehead Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Goosehead Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Goosehead Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Goosehead Insurance Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Goosehead Insurance's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Goosehead Insurance's current price.

Goosehead Insurance Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Goosehead Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Goosehead Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Goosehead Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Goosehead Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Goosehead Insurance Risk Indicators

The analysis of Goosehead Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Goosehead Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting goosehead stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Goosehead Stock Analysis

When running Goosehead Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Goosehead Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Goosehead Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Goosehead Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Goosehead Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Goosehead Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Goosehead Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.