Forcecon Technology Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

3483 Stock  TWD 160.50  2.50  1.53%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Forcecon Technology Co on the next trading day is expected to be 164.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 181.24. Forcecon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Forcecon Technology is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Forcecon Technology Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Forcecon Technology Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Forcecon Technology Co on the next trading day is expected to be 164.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.97, mean absolute percentage error of 14.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 181.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Forcecon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Forcecon Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Forcecon Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Forcecon TechnologyForcecon Technology Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Forcecon Technology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Forcecon Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Forcecon Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 162.08 and 166.66, respectively. We have considered Forcecon Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
160.50
162.08
Downside
164.37
Expected Value
166.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Forcecon Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Forcecon Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.7781
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.9712
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0185
SAESum of the absolute errors181.2443
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Forcecon Technology Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Forcecon Technology. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Forcecon Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Forcecon Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
158.21160.50162.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
132.22134.50176.55
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
158.69163.40168.11
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Forcecon Technology

For every potential investor in Forcecon, whether a beginner or expert, Forcecon Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Forcecon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Forcecon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Forcecon Technology's price trends.

Forcecon Technology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Forcecon Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Forcecon Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Forcecon Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Forcecon Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Forcecon Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Forcecon Technology's current price.

Forcecon Technology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Forcecon Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Forcecon Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Forcecon Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Forcecon Technology Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Forcecon Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Forcecon Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Forcecon Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting forcecon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Forcecon Technology

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Forcecon Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Forcecon Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Forcecon Stock

  0.754961 Fitipower IntegratedPairCorr

Moving against Forcecon Stock

  0.668935 Pontex Polyblend CoLtdPairCorr
  0.532321 TecomPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Forcecon Technology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Forcecon Technology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Forcecon Technology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Forcecon Technology Co to buy it.
The correlation of Forcecon Technology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Forcecon Technology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Forcecon Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Forcecon Technology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Forcecon Stock Analysis

When running Forcecon Technology's price analysis, check to measure Forcecon Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Forcecon Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Forcecon Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Forcecon Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Forcecon Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Forcecon Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.