GraniteShares Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

3STS Etf   0.24  0.03  11.11%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GraniteShares 3x Short on the next trading day is expected to be -0.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.18. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast GraniteShares' etf prices and determine the direction of GraniteShares 3x Short's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A naive forecasting model for GraniteShares is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of GraniteShares 3x Short value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

GraniteShares Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GraniteShares 3x Short on the next trading day is expected to be -0.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.18.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GraniteShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GraniteShares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GraniteShares Etf Forecast Pattern

GraniteShares Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GraniteShares' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GraniteShares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 11.62, respectively. We have considered GraniteShares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.24
-0.52
Expected Value
11.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GraniteShares etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GraniteShares etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0537
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2653
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.2483
SAESum of the absolute errors16.1839
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of GraniteShares 3x Short. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict GraniteShares. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for GraniteShares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GraniteShares 3x Short. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for GraniteShares

For every potential investor in GraniteShares, whether a beginner or expert, GraniteShares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GraniteShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GraniteShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GraniteShares' price trends.

GraniteShares Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GraniteShares etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GraniteShares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GraniteShares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

GraniteShares 3x Short Technical and Predictive Analytics

The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GraniteShares' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GraniteShares' current price.

GraniteShares Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GraniteShares etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GraniteShares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GraniteShares etf market strength indicators, traders can identify GraniteShares 3x Short entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

GraniteShares Risk Indicators

The analysis of GraniteShares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GraniteShares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graniteshares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.