Apple Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

AAPL34 Stock  BRL 75.15  0.11  0.15%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Apple Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 71.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 102.71. Apple Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Apple stock prices and determine the direction of Apple Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Apple's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Apple price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Apple Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Apple Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 71.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66, mean absolute percentage error of 3.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 102.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Apple Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Apple's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Apple Stock Forecast Pattern

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Apple Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Apple's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Apple's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 70.42 and 73.34, respectively. We have considered Apple's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
75.15
71.88
Expected Value
73.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Apple stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Apple stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.3234
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.6566
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0248
SAESum of the absolute errors102.7068
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Apple Inc historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Apple

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apple Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
73.6975.1576.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
64.7566.2182.67
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
60.8268.5676.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Apple. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Apple's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Apple's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Apple Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Apple

For every potential investor in Apple, whether a beginner or expert, Apple's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Apple Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Apple. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Apple's price trends.

Apple Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Apple stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Apple could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Apple by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Apple Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Apple's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Apple's current price.

Apple Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Apple stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Apple shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Apple stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Apple Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Apple Risk Indicators

The analysis of Apple's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Apple's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting apple stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Apple Stock

When determining whether Apple Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Apple's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Apple's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Apple Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Apple's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Apple is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Apple's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.