Analog Devices Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ADI Stock | USD 218.05 0.88 0.41% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Analog Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 218.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 211.33. Analog Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Analog Devices' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Analog |
Analog Devices Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Analog Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 218.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.52, mean absolute percentage error of 21.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 211.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Analog Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Analog Devices' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Analog Devices Stock Forecast Pattern
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Analog Devices Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Analog Devices' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Analog Devices' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 216.54 and 220.26, respectively. We have considered Analog Devices' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Analog Devices stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Analog Devices stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5739 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.5221 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0157 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 211.3284 |
Predictive Modules for Analog Devices
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Analog Devices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Analog Devices' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Analog Devices
For every potential investor in Analog, whether a beginner or expert, Analog Devices' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Analog Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Analog. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Analog Devices' price trends.Analog Devices Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Analog Devices stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Analog Devices could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Analog Devices by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Analog Devices Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Analog Devices' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Analog Devices' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Analog Devices Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Analog Devices stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Analog Devices shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Analog Devices stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Analog Devices entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 37748.93 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2095 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 219.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 219.08 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.11) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.88 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.57 |
Analog Devices Risk Indicators
The analysis of Analog Devices' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Analog Devices' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting analog stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Variance | 4.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Analog Devices offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Analog Devices' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Analog Devices Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Analog Devices Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Analog Devices to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Analog Stock please use our How to Invest in Analog Devices guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Analog Devices. If investors know Analog will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Analog Devices listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Earnings Share 3.28 | Revenue Per Share 19.544 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.25) | Return On Assets 0.0286 |
The market value of Analog Devices is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Analog that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Analog Devices' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Analog Devices' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Analog Devices' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Analog Devices' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Analog Devices' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Analog Devices is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Analog Devices' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.