Alchemy Investments Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ALCY Stock   11.10  0.15  1.37%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alchemy Investments Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.07. Alchemy Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 0.74 in 2024. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 10.3 M in 2024, whereas Net Loss is likely to drop (49.6 K) in 2024.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Alchemy Investments' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
309.7 K
Current Value
170.4 K
Quarterly Volatility
88.5 K
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Alchemy Investments is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alchemy Investments Acquisition value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Alchemy Investments Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alchemy Investments Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alchemy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alchemy Investments' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alchemy Investments Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alchemy InvestmentsAlchemy Investments Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Alchemy Investments Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alchemy Investments' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alchemy Investments' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.29 and 12.63, respectively. We have considered Alchemy Investments' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.10
10.96
Expected Value
12.63
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alchemy Investments stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alchemy Investments stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.5399
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0832
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0074
SAESum of the absolute errors5.0725
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alchemy Investments Acquisition. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Alchemy Investments. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Alchemy Investments

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alchemy Investments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alchemy Investments' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.4411.1112.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.859.5211.19
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.9811.1111.23
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Alchemy Investments

For every potential investor in Alchemy, whether a beginner or expert, Alchemy Investments' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alchemy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alchemy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alchemy Investments' price trends.

Alchemy Investments Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alchemy Investments stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alchemy Investments could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alchemy Investments by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alchemy Investments Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alchemy Investments' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alchemy Investments' current price.

Alchemy Investments Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alchemy Investments stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alchemy Investments shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alchemy Investments stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alchemy Investments Acquisition entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alchemy Investments Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alchemy Investments' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alchemy Investments' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alchemy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Alchemy Stock Analysis

When running Alchemy Investments' price analysis, check to measure Alchemy Investments' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alchemy Investments is operating at the current time. Most of Alchemy Investments' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alchemy Investments' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alchemy Investments' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alchemy Investments to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.