Grupa Azoty Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ATT Stock | 19.00 0.31 1.61% |
Grupa |
Grupa Azoty Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grupa Azoty SA on the next trading day is expected to be 19.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grupa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grupa Azoty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Grupa Azoty Stock Forecast Pattern
Grupa Azoty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Grupa Azoty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grupa Azoty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.73 and 21.36, respectively. We have considered Grupa Azoty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grupa Azoty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grupa Azoty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5786 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0356 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3549 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0179 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.2911 |
Predictive Modules for Grupa Azoty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupa Azoty SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grupa Azoty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Grupa Azoty
For every potential investor in Grupa, whether a beginner or expert, Grupa Azoty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grupa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grupa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grupa Azoty's price trends.Grupa Azoty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grupa Azoty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grupa Azoty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grupa Azoty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grupa Azoty SA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Grupa Azoty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Grupa Azoty's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Grupa Azoty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grupa Azoty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grupa Azoty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grupa Azoty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grupa Azoty SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Grupa Azoty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Grupa Azoty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grupa Azoty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grupa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Variance | 5.36 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Grupa Azoty
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Grupa Azoty position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Grupa Azoty will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Grupa Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Grupa Azoty could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Grupa Azoty when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Grupa Azoty - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Grupa Azoty SA to buy it.
The correlation of Grupa Azoty is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Grupa Azoty moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Grupa Azoty SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Grupa Azoty can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Grupa Stock Analysis
When running Grupa Azoty's price analysis, check to measure Grupa Azoty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grupa Azoty is operating at the current time. Most of Grupa Azoty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grupa Azoty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grupa Azoty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grupa Azoty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.