Allianzgi Global Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

AWTAX Fund  USD 21.82  0.14  0.64%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Allianzgi Global Water on the next trading day is expected to be 21.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.41. Allianzgi Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Allianzgi Global Water is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Allianzgi Global 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Allianzgi Global Water on the next trading day is expected to be 21.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allianzgi Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allianzgi Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Allianzgi Global Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Allianzgi Global Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Allianzgi Global's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allianzgi Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.24 and 22.59, respectively. We have considered Allianzgi Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.82
21.91
Expected Value
22.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allianzgi Global mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allianzgi Global mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.4094
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0094
MADMean absolute deviation0.1623
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0074
SAESum of the absolute errors9.4125
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Allianzgi Global. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Allianzgi Global Water and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Allianzgi Global

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allianzgi Global Water. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.1421.8222.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.1521.8322.51
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.3021.7722.24
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Allianzgi Global. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Allianzgi Global's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Allianzgi Global's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Allianzgi Global Water.

Other Forecasting Options for Allianzgi Global

For every potential investor in Allianzgi, whether a beginner or expert, Allianzgi Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allianzgi Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allianzgi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allianzgi Global's price trends.

Allianzgi Global Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allianzgi Global mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allianzgi Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allianzgi Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allianzgi Global Water Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allianzgi Global's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allianzgi Global's current price.

Allianzgi Global Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allianzgi Global mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allianzgi Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allianzgi Global mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Allianzgi Global Water entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Allianzgi Global Risk Indicators

The analysis of Allianzgi Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allianzgi Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allianzgi mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Allianzgi Mutual Fund

Allianzgi Global financial ratios help investors to determine whether Allianzgi Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Allianzgi with respect to the benefits of owning Allianzgi Global security.
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