Bank Ganesha Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

BGTG Stock  IDR 82.00  1.00  1.20%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Bank Ganesha Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 82.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.00. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Bank Ganesha Tbk is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Bank Ganesha 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Bank Ganesha Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 82.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.12, mean absolute percentage error of 7.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank Ganesha's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank Ganesha Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bank GaneshaBank Ganesha Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Bank Ganesha Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank Ganesha's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank Ganesha's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.48 and 86.52, respectively. We have considered Bank Ganesha's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
82.00
82.50
Expected Value
86.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Ganesha stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Ganesha stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.6095
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.3448
MADMean absolute deviation2.1207
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0266
SAESum of the absolute errors123.0
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Bank Ganesha. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Bank Ganesha Tbk and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Bank Ganesha

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Ganesha Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
77.9882.0086.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
73.8093.2297.24
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bank Ganesha

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Ganesha's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Ganesha's price trends.

Bank Ganesha Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank Ganesha stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank Ganesha could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank Ganesha by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank Ganesha Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank Ganesha's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank Ganesha's current price.

Bank Ganesha Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank Ganesha stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank Ganesha shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank Ganesha stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Ganesha Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank Ganesha Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank Ganesha's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank Ganesha's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect

Other Information on Investing in Bank Stock

Bank Ganesha financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank Ganesha security.