Berkshire Hills Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BHLB Stock | USD 30.26 0.35 1.14% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Berkshire Hills Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 30.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.50. Berkshire Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Berkshire Hills stock prices and determine the direction of Berkshire Hills Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Berkshire Hills' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Berkshire |
Berkshire Hills Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Berkshire Hills Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 30.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Berkshire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Berkshire Hills' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Berkshire Hills Stock Forecast Pattern
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Berkshire Hills Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Berkshire Hills' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Berkshire Hills' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.01 and 32.52, respectively. We have considered Berkshire Hills' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Berkshire Hills stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Berkshire Hills stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.183 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0644 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3853 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0134 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.5009 |
Predictive Modules for Berkshire Hills
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Berkshire Hills Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Berkshire Hills
For every potential investor in Berkshire, whether a beginner or expert, Berkshire Hills' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Berkshire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Berkshire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Berkshire Hills' price trends.View Berkshire Hills Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Berkshire Hills Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Berkshire Hills' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Berkshire Hills' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Berkshire Hills Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Berkshire Hills stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Berkshire Hills shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Berkshire Hills stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Berkshire Hills Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3730.13 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.67) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.44 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.35) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.35) |
Berkshire Hills Risk Indicators
The analysis of Berkshire Hills' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Berkshire Hills' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting berkshire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Variance | 4.94 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.65) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Berkshire Hills Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Berkshire Hills' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Berkshire Hills Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Berkshire Hills Bancorp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Berkshire Hills to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Berkshire Hills. If investors know Berkshire will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Berkshire Hills listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.956 | Dividend Share 0.72 | Earnings Share 0.94 | Revenue Per Share 8.104 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.204 |
The market value of Berkshire Hills Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Berkshire that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Berkshire Hills' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Berkshire Hills' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Berkshire Hills' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Berkshire Hills' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Berkshire Hills' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Berkshire Hills is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Berkshire Hills' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.