Builders FirstSource Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BLDR Stock | USD 186.47 1.72 0.93% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Builders FirstSource on the next trading day is expected to be 187.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 224.19. Builders Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Builders FirstSource's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Builders FirstSource's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Builders FirstSource fundamentals over time.
Builders |
Builders FirstSource Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Builders FirstSource's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2004-12-31 | Previous Quarter 75.6 M | Current Value 328.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 108.4 M |
Builders FirstSource Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Builders FirstSource on the next trading day is expected to be 187.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.62, mean absolute percentage error of 19.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 224.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Builders Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Builders FirstSource's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Builders FirstSource Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Builders FirstSource | Builders FirstSource Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Builders FirstSource Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Builders FirstSource's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Builders FirstSource's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 185.75 and 190.11, respectively. We have considered Builders FirstSource's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Builders FirstSource stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Builders FirstSource stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.9045 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.6159 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0196 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 224.1884 |
Predictive Modules for Builders FirstSource
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Builders FirstSource. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Builders FirstSource's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Builders FirstSource
For every potential investor in Builders, whether a beginner or expert, Builders FirstSource's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Builders Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Builders. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Builders FirstSource's price trends.Builders FirstSource Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Builders FirstSource stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Builders FirstSource could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Builders FirstSource by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Builders FirstSource Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Builders FirstSource's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Builders FirstSource's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Builders FirstSource Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Builders FirstSource stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Builders FirstSource shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Builders FirstSource stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Builders FirstSource entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Builders FirstSource Risk Indicators
The analysis of Builders FirstSource's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Builders FirstSource's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting builders stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Variance | 4.71 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.42 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Builders FirstSource
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Builders FirstSource position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Builders FirstSource will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Builders Stock
| 0.53 | VKSC | Viskase Companies | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | ILAG | Intelligent Living | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | ANSLY | Ansell Ltd ADR | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Builders FirstSource could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Builders FirstSource when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Builders FirstSource - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Builders FirstSource to buy it.
The correlation of Builders FirstSource is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Builders FirstSource moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Builders FirstSource moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Builders FirstSource can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Builders Stock Analysis
When running Builders FirstSource's price analysis, check to measure Builders FirstSource's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Builders FirstSource is operating at the current time. Most of Builders FirstSource's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Builders FirstSource's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Builders FirstSource's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Builders FirstSource to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.