Deutsche Telekom Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DTE Stock | 30.13 0.22 0.74% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deutsche Telekom AG on the next trading day is expected to be 31.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.89. Deutsche Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Deutsche |
Deutsche Telekom Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deutsche Telekom AG on the next trading day is expected to be 31.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Deutsche Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Deutsche Telekom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Deutsche Telekom Stock Forecast Pattern
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Deutsche Telekom Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Deutsche Telekom's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Deutsche Telekom's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.22 and 32.01, respectively. We have considered Deutsche Telekom's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Deutsche Telekom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Deutsche Telekom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5372 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2402 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.8903 |
Predictive Modules for Deutsche Telekom
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deutsche Telekom. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Deutsche Telekom's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Deutsche Telekom
For every potential investor in Deutsche, whether a beginner or expert, Deutsche Telekom's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Deutsche Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Deutsche. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Deutsche Telekom's price trends.Deutsche Telekom Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Deutsche Telekom stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Deutsche Telekom could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Deutsche Telekom by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Deutsche Telekom Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Deutsche Telekom's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Deutsche Telekom's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Deutsche Telekom Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Deutsche Telekom stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Deutsche Telekom shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Deutsche Telekom stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Deutsche Telekom AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 28785.5 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8462 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.04 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.24 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.22 |
Deutsche Telekom Risk Indicators
The analysis of Deutsche Telekom's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Deutsche Telekom's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting deutsche stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.656 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6488 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8858 | |||
| Variance | 0.7846 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8754 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.421 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Deutsche Stock Analysis
When running Deutsche Telekom's price analysis, check to measure Deutsche Telekom's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Deutsche Telekom is operating at the current time. Most of Deutsche Telekom's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Deutsche Telekom's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Deutsche Telekom's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Deutsche Telekom to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.