Ege Endustri Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

EGEEN Stock  TRY 10,530  47.50  0.45%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ege Endustri ve on the next trading day is expected to be 10,499 with a mean absolute deviation of 230.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13,578. Ege Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ege Endustri's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Ege Endustri works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Ege Endustri Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ege Endustri ve on the next trading day is expected to be 10,499 with a mean absolute deviation of 230.14, mean absolute percentage error of 89,547, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13,578.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ege Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ege Endustri's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ege Endustri Stock Forecast Pattern

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Ege Endustri Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ege Endustri's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ege Endustri's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10,497 and 10,502, respectively. We have considered Ege Endustri's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10,530
10,497
Downside
10,499
Expected Value
10,502
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ege Endustri stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ege Endustri stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 36.4233
MADMean absolute deviation230.1439
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0218
SAESum of the absolute errors13578.4881
When Ege Endustri ve prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Ege Endustri ve trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Ege Endustri observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Ege Endustri

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ege Endustri ve. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10,48010,48210,485
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10,44210,44411,531
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9,44210,63011,818
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Ege Endustri

For every potential investor in Ege, whether a beginner or expert, Ege Endustri's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ege Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ege. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ege Endustri's price trends.

Ege Endustri Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ege Endustri stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ege Endustri could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ege Endustri by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ege Endustri ve Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ege Endustri's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ege Endustri's current price.

Ege Endustri Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ege Endustri stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ege Endustri shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ege Endustri stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ege Endustri ve entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ege Endustri Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ege Endustri's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ege Endustri's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ege stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Other Information on Investing in Ege Stock

Ege Endustri financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ege Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ege with respect to the benefits of owning Ege Endustri security.