XL Axiata Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

EXCL Stock  IDR 2,290  20.00  0.87%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of XL Axiata Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 2,290 with a mean absolute deviation of 19.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,170. EXCL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
XL Axiata simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for XL Axiata Tbk are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as XL Axiata Tbk prices get older.

XL Axiata Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of XL Axiata Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 2,290 with a mean absolute deviation of 19.18, mean absolute percentage error of 608.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,170.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EXCL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that XL Axiata's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

XL Axiata Stock Forecast Pattern

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XL Axiata Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting XL Axiata's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. XL Axiata's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,289 and 2,291, respectively. We have considered XL Axiata's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2,290
2,290
Expected Value
2,291
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of XL Axiata stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent XL Axiata stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.521
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4918
MADMean absolute deviation19.1803
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0085
SAESum of the absolute errors1170.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting XL Axiata Tbk forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent XL Axiata observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for XL Axiata

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as XL Axiata Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2,2892,2902,291
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2,1052,1062,519
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
2,1222,2222,323
Details

Other Forecasting Options for XL Axiata

For every potential investor in EXCL, whether a beginner or expert, XL Axiata's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EXCL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EXCL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying XL Axiata's price trends.

XL Axiata Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with XL Axiata stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of XL Axiata could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing XL Axiata by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

XL Axiata Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of XL Axiata's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of XL Axiata's current price.

XL Axiata Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how XL Axiata stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading XL Axiata shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying XL Axiata stock market strength indicators, traders can identify XL Axiata Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

XL Axiata Risk Indicators

The analysis of XL Axiata's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in XL Axiata's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting excl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in EXCL Stock

XL Axiata financial ratios help investors to determine whether EXCL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in EXCL with respect to the benefits of owning XL Axiata security.