First Trust Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FDEUDelisted Fund | USD 13.64 0.02 0.15% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Trust Dynamic on the next trading day is expected to be 13.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.08. First Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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First Trust Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Trust Dynamic on the next trading day is expected to be 13.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Trust's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Trust Fund Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Trust fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Trust fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.3517 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1161 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.009 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.082 |
Predictive Modules for First Trust
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trust Dynamic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
View First Trust Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Trust Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Trust fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Trust shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Trust fund market strength indicators, traders can identify First Trust Dynamic entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Trust Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Trust's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Trust's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6894 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9144 | |||
| Variance | 0.8361 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7334 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4752 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Thematic Opportunities
Explore Investment Opportunities
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in income. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Other Consideration for investing in First Fund
If you are still planning to invest in First Trust Dynamic check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the First Trust's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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