First Eagle Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

FEORX Fund  USD 25.32  0.09  0.35%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of First Eagle Overseas on the next trading day is expected to be 25.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.93. First Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for First Eagle Overseas is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

First Eagle 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of First Eagle Overseas on the next trading day is expected to be 25.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.93.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Eagle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First Eagle Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest First EagleFirst Eagle Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

First Eagle Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First Eagle's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Eagle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.36 and 26.50, respectively. We have considered First Eagle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.32
25.43
Expected Value
26.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Eagle mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Eagle mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.0213
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1282
MADMean absolute deviation0.2444
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0091
SAESum of the absolute errors13.9325
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of First Eagle. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for First Eagle Overseas and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for First Eagle

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Eagle Overseas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.3025.3726.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.6925.7626.83
Details

Other Forecasting Options for First Eagle

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Eagle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Eagle's price trends.

First Eagle Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Eagle mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Eagle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Eagle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First Eagle Overseas Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Eagle's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Eagle's current price.

First Eagle Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Eagle mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Eagle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Eagle mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify First Eagle Overseas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

First Eagle Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Eagle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Eagle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in First Mutual Fund

First Eagle financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Eagle security.
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like