Gold Futures Commodity Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Gold Futures - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Gold Futures prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Gold Futures price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Gold Futures.

Gold Futures Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gold Futures on the next trading day is expected to be 2,662 with a mean absolute deviation of 20.89, mean absolute percentage error of 852.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,253.

Gold Futures Commodity Forecast Pattern

Gold Futures Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gold Futures commodity data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gold Futures commodity, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Gold Futures observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Gold Futures observations.

Predictive Modules for Gold Futures

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gold Futures. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the commodity market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the commodity market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Gold Futures

For every potential investor in Gold, whether a beginner or expert, Gold Futures' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gold Commodity price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gold. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gold Futures' price trends.

Gold Futures Related Commodities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Gold Futures Technical and Predictive Analytics

The commodity market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gold Futures' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gold Futures' current price.

Gold Futures Market Strength Events

Gold Futures Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.