Genuine Parts Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GPC Stock | USD 125.40 0.52 0.41% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genuine Parts Co on the next trading day is expected to be 125.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.97. Genuine Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Genuine Parts stock prices and determine the direction of Genuine Parts Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Genuine Parts' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Genuine |
Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 Genuine Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Genuine Parts' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Genuine Parts' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Genuine Parts stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Genuine Parts' open interest, investors have to compare it to Genuine Parts' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Genuine Parts is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Genuine. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Genuine Parts Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genuine Parts Co on the next trading day is expected to be 125.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.84, mean absolute percentage error of 18.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genuine Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genuine Parts' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Genuine Parts Stock Forecast Pattern
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Genuine Parts Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Genuine Parts' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Genuine Parts' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 122.34 and 128.46, respectively. We have considered Genuine Parts' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genuine Parts stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genuine Parts stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0009 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1779 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8356 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 111.97 |
Predictive Modules for Genuine Parts
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genuine Parts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Genuine Parts
For every potential investor in Genuine, whether a beginner or expert, Genuine Parts' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Genuine Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Genuine. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Genuine Parts' price trends.Genuine Parts Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Genuine Parts stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Genuine Parts could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Genuine Parts by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Genuine Parts Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Genuine Parts' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Genuine Parts' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Genuine Parts Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Genuine Parts stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Genuine Parts shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Genuine Parts stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Genuine Parts Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 24283.51 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.16) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 124.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 125.06 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.26 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.52) |
Genuine Parts Risk Indicators
The analysis of Genuine Parts' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genuine Parts' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting genuine stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.0 | |||
| Variance | 8.97 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Genuine Parts offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Genuine Parts' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Genuine Parts Co Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Genuine Parts Co Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genuine Parts to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genuine Parts. If investors know Genuine will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genuine Parts listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | Dividend Share 3.95 | Earnings Share 7.76 | Revenue Per Share 167.12 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.025 |
The market value of Genuine Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genuine that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genuine Parts' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genuine Parts' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genuine Parts' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genuine Parts' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genuine Parts' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Genuine Parts is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genuine Parts' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.