Haynes International Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Haynes International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Haynes International value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Haynes International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Haynes International on the next trading day is expected to be 61.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.42.

Haynes International Stock Forecast Pattern

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Haynes International Price Prediction

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Haynes International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Haynes International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Haynes International. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Haynes International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Haynes International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Haynes International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 60.68 60.99 61.30 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 51.00 51.31 67.09 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 60.01 60.55 61.08 Details

Haynes International Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Haynes International Market Strength Events

Haynes International Risk Indicators

Pair Trading with Haynes International

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Haynes International position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Haynes International will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Other Consideration for investing in Haynes Stock