Hilton Worldwide Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

HI91 Stock  EUR 239.50  4.00  1.64%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 239.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 156.79. Hilton Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hilton Worldwide's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A two period moving average forecast for Hilton Worldwide is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Hilton Worldwide Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 239.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.61, mean absolute percentage error of 10.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 156.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hilton Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hilton Worldwide's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hilton Worldwide Stock Forecast Pattern

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Hilton Worldwide Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hilton Worldwide's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hilton Worldwide's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 238.24 and 240.76, respectively. We have considered Hilton Worldwide's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
239.50
238.24
Downside
239.50
Expected Value
240.76
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hilton Worldwide stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hilton Worldwide stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.6266
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.0822
MADMean absolute deviation2.6132
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0117
SAESum of the absolute errors156.79
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Hilton Worldwide. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Hilton Worldwide

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hilton Worldwide Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
238.25239.50240.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
215.55270.57271.82
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
210.73230.49250.24
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Hilton Worldwide

For every potential investor in Hilton, whether a beginner or expert, Hilton Worldwide's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hilton Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hilton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hilton Worldwide's price trends.

Hilton Worldwide Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hilton Worldwide stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hilton Worldwide could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hilton Worldwide by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hilton Worldwide's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hilton Worldwide's current price.

Hilton Worldwide Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hilton Worldwide stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hilton Worldwide shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hilton Worldwide stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hilton Worldwide Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hilton Worldwide Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hilton Worldwide's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hilton Worldwide's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hilton stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Hilton Stock

When determining whether Hilton Worldwide Holdings is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Hilton Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Hilton Worldwide Holdings Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Hilton Worldwide Holdings Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hilton Worldwide to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hilton Worldwide's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hilton Worldwide is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hilton Worldwide's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.