Insteel Industries Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| IIIN Stock | USD 30.31 0.21 0.69% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Insteel Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 30.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.16. Insteel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Insteel Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Insteel Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Insteel Industries fundamentals over time.
Insteel |
Insteel Industries Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Insteel Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 30.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Insteel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Insteel Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Insteel Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Insteel Industries | Insteel Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Insteel Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Insteel Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Insteel Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.09 and 32.53, respectively. We have considered Insteel Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Insteel Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Insteel Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4554 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0217 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4693 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0158 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.16 |
Predictive Modules for Insteel Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Insteel Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Insteel Industries
For every potential investor in Insteel, whether a beginner or expert, Insteel Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Insteel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Insteel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Insteel Industries' price trends.Insteel Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Insteel Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Insteel Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Insteel Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Insteel Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Insteel Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Insteel Industries' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Insteel Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Insteel Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Insteel Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Insteel Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Insteel Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Insteel Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Insteel Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Insteel Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting insteel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Variance | 5.13 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Insteel Industries
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Insteel Industries position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Insteel Industries will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Insteel Stock
| 0.72 | TG | Tredegar | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | CMPO | CompoSecure | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | CMPOW | CompoSecure | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | J | Jacobs Solutions | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | B | Barnes Group | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Insteel Industries could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Insteel Industries when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Insteel Industries - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Insteel Industries to buy it.
The correlation of Insteel Industries is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Insteel Industries moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Insteel Industries moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Insteel Industries can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Insteel Industries to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Insteel Stock, please use our How to Invest in Insteel Industries guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Building Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Insteel Industries. If investors know Insteel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Insteel Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | Dividend Share 0.12 | Earnings Share 0.99 | Revenue Per Share 27.136 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
The market value of Insteel Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Insteel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Insteel Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Insteel Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Insteel Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Insteel Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Insteel Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Insteel Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Insteel Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.