Intrepid Potash Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| IPI Stock | USD 27.11 0.03 0.11% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Intrepid Potash on the next trading day is expected to be 27.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.72. Intrepid Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Intrepid Potash's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Intrepid |
Intrepid Potash Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Intrepid Potash on the next trading day is expected to be 27.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Intrepid Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Intrepid Potash's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Intrepid Potash Stock Forecast Pattern
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Intrepid Potash Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Intrepid Potash's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Intrepid Potash's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.29 and 29.95, respectively. We have considered Intrepid Potash's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Intrepid Potash stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Intrepid Potash stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2913 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5922 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0234 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.7154 |
Predictive Modules for Intrepid Potash
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intrepid Potash. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Intrepid Potash
For every potential investor in Intrepid, whether a beginner or expert, Intrepid Potash's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Intrepid Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Intrepid. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Intrepid Potash's price trends.Intrepid Potash Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Intrepid Potash stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Intrepid Potash could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Intrepid Potash by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Intrepid Potash Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Intrepid Potash's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Intrepid Potash's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Intrepid Potash Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Intrepid Potash stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Intrepid Potash shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Intrepid Potash stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Intrepid Potash entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Intrepid Potash Risk Indicators
The analysis of Intrepid Potash's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Intrepid Potash's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting intrepid stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Variance | 5.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Intrepid Potash offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Intrepid Potash's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Intrepid Potash Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Intrepid Potash Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Intrepid Potash to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Intrepid Stock please use our How to Invest in Intrepid Potash guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Intrepid Potash. If investors know Intrepid will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Intrepid Potash listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | Earnings Share (3.38) | Revenue Per Share 16.057 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.06 | Return On Assets (0) |
The market value of Intrepid Potash is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Intrepid that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Intrepid Potash's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Intrepid Potash's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Intrepid Potash's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Intrepid Potash's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Intrepid Potash's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Intrepid Potash is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Intrepid Potash's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.