Kimia Farma Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| KAEF Stock | IDR 635.00 5.00 0.78% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kimia Farma Persero on the next trading day is expected to be 634.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 643.61. Kimia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Kimia |
Kimia Farma Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kimia Farma Persero on the next trading day is expected to be 634.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.73, mean absolute percentage error of 252.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 643.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kimia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kimia Farma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kimia Farma Stock Forecast Pattern
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Kimia Farma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kimia Farma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kimia Farma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 632.28 and 636.53, respectively. We have considered Kimia Farma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kimia Farma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kimia Farma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.694 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 10.7268 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0154 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 643.6091 |
Predictive Modules for Kimia Farma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kimia Farma Persero. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Kimia Farma
For every potential investor in Kimia, whether a beginner or expert, Kimia Farma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kimia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kimia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kimia Farma's price trends.Kimia Farma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kimia Farma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kimia Farma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kimia Farma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kimia Farma Persero Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kimia Farma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kimia Farma's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kimia Farma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kimia Farma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kimia Farma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kimia Farma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kimia Farma Persero entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4811.63 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.33) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 637.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 636.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (5.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (5.00) |
Kimia Farma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kimia Farma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kimia Farma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kimia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Variance | 4.38 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Kimia Farma financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kimia Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kimia with respect to the benefits of owning Kimia Farma security.