Lundin Gold Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

LUG Stock  CAD 31.92  1.07  3.24%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Lundin Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 31.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.41. Lundin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Lundin Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lundin Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lundin Gold fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Lundin Gold's Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 13th of December 2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 29.30, while Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.98. . As of the 13th of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 251.1 M. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 88.8 M.
A two period moving average forecast for Lundin Gold is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Lundin Gold Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Lundin Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 31.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66, mean absolute percentage error of 0.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lundin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lundin Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Lundin Gold Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Lundin GoldLundin Gold Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Lundin Gold Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Lundin Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lundin Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.70 and 34.14, respectively. We have considered Lundin Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
31.92
31.92
Expected Value
34.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lundin Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lundin Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8697
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0775
MADMean absolute deviation0.6568
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0203
SAESum of the absolute errors39.41
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Lundin Gold price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Lundin Gold. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Lundin Gold

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lundin Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29.8232.0434.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.6925.9135.11
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.540.600.64
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Lundin Gold

For every potential investor in Lundin, whether a beginner or expert, Lundin Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lundin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lundin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lundin Gold's price trends.

Lundin Gold Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lundin Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lundin Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lundin Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Lundin Gold Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lundin Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lundin Gold's current price.

Lundin Gold Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lundin Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lundin Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lundin Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lundin Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Lundin Gold Risk Indicators

The analysis of Lundin Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lundin Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lundin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Lundin Gold

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Lundin Gold position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Lundin Gold will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Lundin Stock

  0.72AG First Majestic SilverPairCorr
  0.64IE Ivanhoe EnergyPairCorr

Moving against Lundin Stock

  0.47INFM Infinico Metals CorpPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Lundin Gold could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Lundin Gold when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Lundin Gold - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Lundin Gold to buy it.
The correlation of Lundin Gold is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Lundin Gold moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Lundin Gold moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Lundin Gold can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Lundin Stock

Lundin Gold financial ratios help investors to determine whether Lundin Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Lundin with respect to the benefits of owning Lundin Gold security.