Marubeni Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

MARA Stock  EUR 14.27  0.06  0.42%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Marubeni on the next trading day is expected to be 14.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.70. Marubeni Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marubeni's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Marubeni is based on an artificially constructed time series of Marubeni daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Marubeni 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Marubeni on the next trading day is expected to be 14.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marubeni Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marubeni's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Marubeni Stock Forecast Pattern

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Marubeni Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Marubeni's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marubeni's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.46 and 16.08, respectively. We have considered Marubeni's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.27
14.27
Expected Value
16.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marubeni stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marubeni stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria103.0745
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0365
MADMean absolute deviation0.2536
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0174
SAESum of the absolute errors13.695
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Marubeni 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Marubeni

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marubeni. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.4614.2716.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.4913.3015.11
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Marubeni. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Marubeni's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Marubeni's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Marubeni.

Other Forecasting Options for Marubeni

For every potential investor in Marubeni, whether a beginner or expert, Marubeni's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marubeni Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marubeni. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marubeni's price trends.

Marubeni Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marubeni stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marubeni could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marubeni by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Marubeni Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marubeni's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marubeni's current price.

Marubeni Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marubeni stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marubeni shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marubeni stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marubeni entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Marubeni Risk Indicators

The analysis of Marubeni's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marubeni's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marubeni stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Marubeni Stock

Marubeni financial ratios help investors to determine whether Marubeni Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Marubeni with respect to the benefits of owning Marubeni security.