MCX ICOMDEX Index Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MCIALUM Index | 11,745 27.02 0.23% |
MCX ICOMDEX Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MCX ICOMDEX ALUMINIUM on the next trading day is expected to be 11,952 with a mean absolute deviation of 143.89, mean absolute percentage error of 27,653, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8,777.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MCX Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MCX ICOMDEX's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MCX ICOMDEX Index Forecast Pattern
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MCX ICOMDEX index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MCX ICOMDEX index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 128.338 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 143.885 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0125 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8776.9879 |
Predictive Modules for MCX ICOMDEX
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MCX ICOMDEX ALUMINIUM. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MCX ICOMDEX Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MCX ICOMDEX index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MCX ICOMDEX could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MCX ICOMDEX by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MCX ICOMDEX Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MCX ICOMDEX index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MCX ICOMDEX shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MCX ICOMDEX index market strength indicators, traders can identify MCX ICOMDEX ALUMINIUM entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0138 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.16) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11802.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11783.69 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 164.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (71.24) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (27.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.98 |
MCX ICOMDEX Risk Indicators
The analysis of MCX ICOMDEX's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MCX ICOMDEX's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mcx index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9572 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9176 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Variance | 1.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.842 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.