Merrill Lynch Preferred Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MER-PK Preferred Stock  USD 26.18  0.07  0.27%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merrill Lynch Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 26.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.37. Merrill Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Merrill Lynch simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Merrill Lynch Capital are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Merrill Lynch Capital prices get older.

Merrill Lynch Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merrill Lynch Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 26.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.37.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merrill Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merrill Lynch's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Merrill Lynch Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Merrill LynchMerrill Lynch Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Merrill Lynch Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Merrill Lynch's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merrill Lynch's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.73 and 26.62, respectively. We have considered Merrill Lynch's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26.18
26.18
Expected Value
26.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merrill Lynch preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merrill Lynch preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.7532
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0029
MADMean absolute deviation0.088
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0034
SAESum of the absolute errors5.3687
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Merrill Lynch Capital forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Merrill Lynch observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Merrill Lynch

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merrill Lynch Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.7326.1826.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.6126.0626.51
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.0026.1626.32
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Merrill Lynch

For every potential investor in Merrill, whether a beginner or expert, Merrill Lynch's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merrill Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merrill. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merrill Lynch's price trends.

Merrill Lynch Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merrill Lynch preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merrill Lynch could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merrill Lynch by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Merrill Lynch Capital Technical and Predictive Analytics

The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merrill Lynch's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merrill Lynch's current price.

Merrill Lynch Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merrill Lynch preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merrill Lynch shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merrill Lynch preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merrill Lynch Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Merrill Lynch Risk Indicators

The analysis of Merrill Lynch's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merrill Lynch's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merrill preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect

Other Information on Investing in Merrill Preferred Stock

Merrill Lynch financial ratios help investors to determine whether Merrill Preferred Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Merrill with respect to the benefits of owning Merrill Lynch security.