Netflix Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

NFLX34 Stock  BRL 111.46  1.06  0.94%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Netflix on the next trading day is expected to be 111.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.34. Netflix Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Netflix stock prices and determine the direction of Netflix's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Netflix's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A two period moving average forecast for Netflix is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Netflix Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Netflix on the next trading day is expected to be 111.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.55, mean absolute percentage error of 4.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Netflix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Netflix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Netflix Stock Forecast Pattern

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Netflix Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Netflix's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Netflix's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 109.64 and 113.28, respectively. We have considered Netflix's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
111.46
109.64
Downside
111.46
Expected Value
113.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Netflix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Netflix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8534
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.9004
MADMean absolute deviation1.5482
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0168
SAESum of the absolute errors91.345
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Netflix price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Netflix. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Netflix

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Netflix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
109.64111.46113.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
91.8193.63122.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
69.5493.16116.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Netflix. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Netflix's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Netflix's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Netflix.

Other Forecasting Options for Netflix

For every potential investor in Netflix, whether a beginner or expert, Netflix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Netflix Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Netflix. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Netflix's price trends.

Netflix Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Netflix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Netflix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Netflix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Netflix Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Netflix's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Netflix's current price.

Netflix Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Netflix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Netflix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Netflix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Netflix entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Netflix Risk Indicators

The analysis of Netflix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Netflix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting netflix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Netflix Stock

When determining whether Netflix offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Netflix's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Netflix Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Netflix Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Netflix to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Netflix Stock refer to our How to Trade Netflix Stock guide.
You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Netflix's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Netflix is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Netflix's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.