Norske Skog Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

NSKOG Stock  NOK 22.10  0.10  0.45%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Norske Skog Asa on the next trading day is expected to be 20.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.05. Norske Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Norske Skog is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Norske Skog Asa value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Norske Skog Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Norske Skog Asa on the next trading day is expected to be 20.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98, mean absolute percentage error of 1.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Norske Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Norske Skog's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Norske Skog Stock Forecast Pattern

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Norske Skog Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Norske Skog's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Norske Skog's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.41 and 23.77, respectively. We have considered Norske Skog's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22.10
20.09
Expected Value
23.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Norske Skog stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Norske Skog stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5468
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9844
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0403
SAESum of the absolute errors60.0506
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Norske Skog Asa. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Norske Skog. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Norske Skog

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Norske Skog Asa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.4922.2025.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.3621.0724.78
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.9523.1529.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Norske Skog. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Norske Skog's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Norske Skog's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Norske Skog Asa.

Other Forecasting Options for Norske Skog

For every potential investor in Norske, whether a beginner or expert, Norske Skog's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Norske Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Norske. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Norske Skog's price trends.

Norske Skog Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Norske Skog stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Norske Skog could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Norske Skog by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Norske Skog Asa Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Norske Skog's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Norske Skog's current price.

Norske Skog Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Norske Skog stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Norske Skog shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Norske Skog stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Norske Skog Asa entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Norske Skog Risk Indicators

The analysis of Norske Skog's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Norske Skog's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting norske stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Norske Stock

Norske Skog financial ratios help investors to determine whether Norske Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Norske with respect to the benefits of owning Norske Skog security.