Nationwide Bailard Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

NWHGX Fund  USD 18.39  0.13  0.70%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Nationwide Bailard Nitive on the next trading day is expected to be 18.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.90. Nationwide Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Nationwide Bailard Nitive is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Nationwide Bailard 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Nationwide Bailard Nitive on the next trading day is expected to be 18.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.90.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nationwide Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nationwide Bailard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nationwide Bailard Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Nationwide Bailard Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nationwide Bailard's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nationwide Bailard's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.23 and 19.61, respectively. We have considered Nationwide Bailard's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.39
18.42
Expected Value
19.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nationwide Bailard mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nationwide Bailard mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.2046
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0562
MADMean absolute deviation0.2052
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0115
SAESum of the absolute errors11.9025
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Nationwide Bailard. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Nationwide Bailard Nitive and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Nationwide Bailard

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nationwide Bailard Nitive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.2118.3919.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.7018.8820.06
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.9118.4218.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nationwide Bailard. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nationwide Bailard's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nationwide Bailard's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Nationwide Bailard Nitive.

Other Forecasting Options for Nationwide Bailard

For every potential investor in Nationwide, whether a beginner or expert, Nationwide Bailard's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nationwide Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nationwide. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nationwide Bailard's price trends.

Nationwide Bailard Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nationwide Bailard mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nationwide Bailard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nationwide Bailard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nationwide Bailard Nitive Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nationwide Bailard's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nationwide Bailard's current price.

Nationwide Bailard Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nationwide Bailard mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nationwide Bailard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nationwide Bailard mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Nationwide Bailard Nitive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nationwide Bailard Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nationwide Bailard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nationwide Bailard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nationwide mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Nationwide Mutual Fund

Nationwide Bailard financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nationwide Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nationwide with respect to the benefits of owning Nationwide Bailard security.
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