Par Drugs Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

PAR Stock   229.40  6.00  2.55%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Par Drugs And on the next trading day is expected to be 232.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 763.96. Par Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Par Drugs stock prices and determine the direction of Par Drugs And's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Par Drugs' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Par Drugs' Other Current Liabilities is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Retained Earnings is expected to grow to about 656.8 M, whereas Total Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 123.4 M.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Par Drugs And is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Par Drugs 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Par Drugs And on the next trading day is expected to be 232.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.17, mean absolute percentage error of 404.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 763.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Par Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Par Drugs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Par Drugs Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Par DrugsPar Drugs Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Par Drugs Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Par Drugs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Par Drugs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 226.45 and 238.35, respectively. We have considered Par Drugs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
229.40
226.45
Downside
232.40
Expected Value
238.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Par Drugs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Par Drugs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.6003
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.5144
MADMean absolute deviation13.1717
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0503
SAESum of the absolute errors763.9575
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Par Drugs. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Par Drugs And and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Par Drugs

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Par Drugs And. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
222.98229.00235.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
209.85215.87252.34
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
221.70276.18330.65
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Par Drugs

For every potential investor in Par, whether a beginner or expert, Par Drugs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Par Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Par. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Par Drugs' price trends.

Par Drugs Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Par Drugs stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Par Drugs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Par Drugs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Par Drugs And Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Par Drugs' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Par Drugs' current price.

Par Drugs Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Par Drugs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Par Drugs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Par Drugs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Par Drugs And entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Par Drugs Risk Indicators

The analysis of Par Drugs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Par Drugs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting par stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Par Stock

Par Drugs financial ratios help investors to determine whether Par Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Par with respect to the benefits of owning Par Drugs security.