Pinnacle Financial Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

PNFP Stock  USD 127.25  1.00  0.78%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pinnacle Financial Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 127.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.66. Pinnacle Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Pinnacle Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Pinnacle Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Pinnacle Financial fundamentals over time.
  
As of 11/29/2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 8.37, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop (0.03). . As of 11/29/2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 658.8 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 41.2 M.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Pinnacle Financial works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Pinnacle Financial Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pinnacle Financial Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 127.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.23, mean absolute percentage error of 10.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pinnacle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pinnacle Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pinnacle Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Pinnacle FinancialPinnacle Financial Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Pinnacle Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pinnacle Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pinnacle Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 125.15 and 130.61, respectively. We have considered Pinnacle Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
127.25
125.15
Downside
127.88
Expected Value
130.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pinnacle Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pinnacle Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4821
MADMean absolute deviation2.2316
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0208
SAESum of the absolute errors131.662
When Pinnacle Financial Partners prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Pinnacle Financial Partners trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Pinnacle Financial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Pinnacle Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pinnacle Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
123.96126.69129.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
101.67104.40139.98
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
71.3478.4087.02
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.571.781.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pinnacle Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pinnacle Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pinnacle Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Pinnacle Financial.

Other Forecasting Options for Pinnacle Financial

For every potential investor in Pinnacle, whether a beginner or expert, Pinnacle Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pinnacle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pinnacle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pinnacle Financial's price trends.

Pinnacle Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pinnacle Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pinnacle Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pinnacle Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pinnacle Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pinnacle Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pinnacle Financial's current price.

Pinnacle Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pinnacle Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pinnacle Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pinnacle Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pinnacle Financial Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pinnacle Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pinnacle Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pinnacle Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pinnacle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Pinnacle Financial

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Pinnacle Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Pinnacle Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Pinnacle Stock

  0.97AX Axos FinancialPairCorr
  0.96BY Byline Bancorp Fiscal Year End 23rd of January 2025 PairCorr

Moving against Pinnacle Stock

  0.66CFG-PE Citizens FinancialPairCorr
  0.64TFC-PO Truist FinancialPairCorr
  0.61TFC-PR Truist FinancialPairCorr
  0.37WF Woori Financial GroupPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Pinnacle Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Pinnacle Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Pinnacle Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Pinnacle Financial Partners to buy it.
The correlation of Pinnacle Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Pinnacle Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Pinnacle Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Pinnacle Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Pinnacle Stock Analysis

When running Pinnacle Financial's price analysis, check to measure Pinnacle Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pinnacle Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Pinnacle Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pinnacle Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pinnacle Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pinnacle Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.