Pyridam Farma Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PYFA Stock  IDR 236.00  8.00  3.28%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pyridam Farma Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 236.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 610.00. Pyridam Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Pyridam Farma simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Pyridam Farma Tbk are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Pyridam Farma Tbk prices get older.

Pyridam Farma Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pyridam Farma Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 236.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.00, mean absolute percentage error of 209.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 610.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pyridam Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pyridam Farma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pyridam Farma Stock Forecast Pattern

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Pyridam Farma Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pyridam Farma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pyridam Farma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 229.83 and 242.17, respectively. We have considered Pyridam Farma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
236.00
229.83
Downside
236.00
Expected Value
242.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pyridam Farma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pyridam Farma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.4548
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.1803
MADMean absolute deviation10.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.039
SAESum of the absolute errors610.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Pyridam Farma Tbk forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Pyridam Farma observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Pyridam Farma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pyridam Farma Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
229.83236.00242.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
232.33238.50244.67
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Pyridam Farma

For every potential investor in Pyridam, whether a beginner or expert, Pyridam Farma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pyridam Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pyridam. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pyridam Farma's price trends.

Pyridam Farma Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pyridam Farma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pyridam Farma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pyridam Farma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pyridam Farma Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pyridam Farma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pyridam Farma's current price.

Pyridam Farma Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pyridam Farma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pyridam Farma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pyridam Farma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pyridam Farma Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pyridam Farma Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pyridam Farma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pyridam Farma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pyridam stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Pyridam Stock

Pyridam Farma financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pyridam Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pyridam with respect to the benefits of owning Pyridam Farma security.