RLI Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| RLI Stock | USD 175.90 4.34 2.41% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of RLI Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 172.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 136.38. RLI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of RLI Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
RLI |
RLI Corp Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the RLI Corp's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1995-06-30 | Previous Quarter 50 M | Current Value 60.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 90 M |
RLI Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of RLI Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 172.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.20, mean absolute percentage error of 7.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 136.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RLI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RLI Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
RLI Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
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RLI Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting RLI Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RLI Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 171.51 and 174.25, respectively. We have considered RLI Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RLI Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RLI Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.9792 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1997 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0137 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 136.3833 |
Predictive Modules for RLI Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RLI Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for RLI Corp
For every potential investor in RLI, whether a beginner or expert, RLI Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RLI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RLI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RLI Corp's price trends.RLI Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RLI Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RLI Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RLI Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RLI Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of RLI Corp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of RLI Corp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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RLI Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RLI Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RLI Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RLI Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RLI Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1328.96 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (2.03) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 176.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 176.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.89) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.34) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 77.6 |
RLI Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of RLI Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RLI Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rli stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8891 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.17 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether RLI Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of RLI Corp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Rli Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Rli Corp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RLI Corp to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in RLI Stock please use our How to Invest in RLI Corp guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of RLI Corp. If investors know RLI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about RLI Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.103 | Dividend Share 1.12 | Earnings Share 9.08 | Revenue Per Share 38.608 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.417 |
The market value of RLI Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of RLI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of RLI Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is RLI Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because RLI Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect RLI Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between RLI Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if RLI Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, RLI Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.