IShares Silver Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

SLV Etf  USD 27.75  0.45  1.60%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of iShares Silver Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 28.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.29. IShares Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for IShares Silver is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of iShares Silver Trust value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

IShares Silver Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of iShares Silver Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 28.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IShares Silver's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

IShares Silver Etf Forecast Pattern

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IShares Silver Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting IShares Silver's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. IShares Silver's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.72 and 30.61, respectively. We have considered IShares Silver's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.75
28.66
Expected Value
30.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IShares Silver etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IShares Silver etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.4273
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5949
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0205
SAESum of the absolute errors36.291
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of iShares Silver Trust. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict IShares Silver. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for IShares Silver

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as iShares Silver Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26.2628.2130.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.2726.2231.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.7728.9231.07
Details

Other Forecasting Options for IShares Silver

For every potential investor in IShares, whether a beginner or expert, IShares Silver's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. IShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in IShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying IShares Silver's price trends.

IShares Silver Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IShares Silver etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IShares Silver could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IShares Silver by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

iShares Silver Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics

The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of IShares Silver's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of IShares Silver's current price.

IShares Silver Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IShares Silver etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IShares Silver shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IShares Silver etf market strength indicators, traders can identify iShares Silver Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

IShares Silver Risk Indicators

The analysis of IShares Silver's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IShares Silver's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ishares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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When determining whether iShares Silver Trust is a strong investment it is important to analyze IShares Silver's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact IShares Silver's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding IShares Etf, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares Silver to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
The market value of iShares Silver Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of IShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of IShares Silver's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is IShares Silver's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because IShares Silver's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect IShares Silver's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between IShares Silver's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if IShares Silver is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, IShares Silver's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.