Semtech Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SMTC Stock | USD 64.04 0.16 0.25% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Semtech on the next trading day is expected to be 64.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.80. Semtech Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Semtech stock prices and determine the direction of Semtech's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Semtech's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Semtech |
Semtech Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Semtech on the next trading day is expected to be 64.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.42, mean absolute percentage error of 3.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Semtech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Semtech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Semtech Stock Forecast Pattern
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Semtech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Semtech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Semtech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.73 and 68.65, respectively. We have considered Semtech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Semtech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Semtech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2444 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4203 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0303 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 83.8 |
Predictive Modules for Semtech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Semtech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Semtech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Semtech
For every potential investor in Semtech, whether a beginner or expert, Semtech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Semtech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Semtech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Semtech's price trends.View Semtech Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Semtech Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Semtech's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Semtech's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Semtech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Semtech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Semtech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Semtech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Semtech entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Semtech Risk Indicators
The analysis of Semtech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Semtech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting semtech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.97 | |||
| Variance | 15.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.25 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.53) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Semtech offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Semtech's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Semtech Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Semtech Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Semtech to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Semtech Stock refer to our How to Trade Semtech Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Semtech. If investors know Semtech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Semtech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Earnings Share (10.11) | Revenue Per Share 12.622 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.1) | Return On Assets 0.001 |
The market value of Semtech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Semtech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Semtech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Semtech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Semtech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Semtech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Semtech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Semtech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Semtech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.