Spire Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SR Stock | USD 73.11 0.51 0.70% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Spire Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 73.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.77. Spire Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Spire's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Spire's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Spire fundamentals over time.
Spire |
Spire Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Spire Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 73.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.87, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Spire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Spire's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Spire Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Spire | Spire Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Spire Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Spire's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Spire's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 71.73 and 74.49, respectively. We have considered Spire's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Spire stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Spire stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1371 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1315 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6962 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0105 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.77 |
Predictive Modules for Spire
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Spire Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Spire
For every potential investor in Spire, whether a beginner or expert, Spire's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Spire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Spire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Spire's price trends.Spire Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Spire stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Spire could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Spire by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Spire Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Spire's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Spire's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Spire Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Spire stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Spire shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Spire stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Spire Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Spire Risk Indicators
The analysis of Spire's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Spire's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting spire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9798 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.09) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Spire
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Spire position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Spire will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Spire Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Spire could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Spire when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Spire - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Spire Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Spire is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Spire moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Spire Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Spire can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Spire Stock Analysis
When running Spire's price analysis, check to measure Spire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Spire is operating at the current time. Most of Spire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Spire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Spire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Spire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.