Tekla Healthcare Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

THQ Fund  USD 20.59  0.27  1.33%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tekla Healthcare Opportunities on the next trading day is expected to be 20.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.08. Tekla Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Tekla Healthcare simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Tekla Healthcare Opportunities are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Tekla Healthcare Opp prices get older.

Tekla Healthcare Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tekla Healthcare Opportunities on the next trading day is expected to be 20.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.08.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tekla Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tekla Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Tekla Healthcare Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Tekla HealthcareTekla Healthcare Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Tekla Healthcare Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Tekla Healthcare's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tekla Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.54 and 21.64, respectively. We have considered Tekla Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.59
20.59
Expected Value
21.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tekla Healthcare fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tekla Healthcare fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.2195
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0067
MADMean absolute deviation0.168
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0081
SAESum of the absolute errors10.08
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Tekla Healthcare Opportunities forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Tekla Healthcare observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Tekla Healthcare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tekla Healthcare Opp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.5420.5921.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.5420.5921.64
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.1220.3621.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tekla Healthcare. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tekla Healthcare's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tekla Healthcare's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Tekla Healthcare Opp.

Other Forecasting Options for Tekla Healthcare

For every potential investor in Tekla, whether a beginner or expert, Tekla Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tekla Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tekla. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tekla Healthcare's price trends.

Tekla Healthcare Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tekla Healthcare fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tekla Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tekla Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Tekla Healthcare Opp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tekla Healthcare's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tekla Healthcare's current price.

Tekla Healthcare Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tekla Healthcare fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tekla Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tekla Healthcare fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Tekla Healthcare Opportunities entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Tekla Healthcare Risk Indicators

The analysis of Tekla Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tekla Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tekla fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Tekla Healthcare

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Tekla Healthcare position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Tekla Healthcare will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Tekla Fund

  0.72KINCX Kinetics InternetPairCorr
  0.68KMKCX Kinetics Market Oppo Steady GrowthPairCorr
  0.67WWNPX Kinetics Paradigm Steady GrowthPairCorr
  0.67KNPCX Kinetics Paradigm Steady GrowthPairCorr
  0.67KNPAX Kinetics Paradigm Steady GrowthPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Tekla Healthcare could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Tekla Healthcare when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Tekla Healthcare - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Tekla Healthcare Opportunities to buy it.
The correlation of Tekla Healthcare is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Tekla Healthcare moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Tekla Healthcare Opp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Tekla Healthcare can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Tekla Fund

Tekla Healthcare financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tekla Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tekla with respect to the benefits of owning Tekla Healthcare security.
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