SUMITOMO Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

86562MAK6   94.88  2.44  2.51%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of SUMITOMO MITSUI FINL on the next trading day is expected to be 94.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.33. SUMITOMO Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SUMITOMO stock prices and determine the direction of SUMITOMO MITSUI FINL's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SUMITOMO's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for SUMITOMO MITSUI FINL is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

SUMITOMO 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of SUMITOMO MITSUI FINL on the next trading day is expected to be 94.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SUMITOMO Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SUMITOMO's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

SUMITOMO Bond Forecast Pattern

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SUMITOMO Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting SUMITOMO's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SUMITOMO's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.99 and 94.72, respectively. We have considered SUMITOMO's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
94.88
94.36
Expected Value
94.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SUMITOMO bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SUMITOMO bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.6723
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1407
MADMean absolute deviation0.2816
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.003
SAESum of the absolute errors16.3325
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of SUMITOMO. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for SUMITOMO MITSUI FINL and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for SUMITOMO

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SUMITOMO MITSUI FINL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
94.4894.8895.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
94.7395.1295.53
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
94.9196.8498.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as SUMITOMO. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against SUMITOMO's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, SUMITOMO's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in SUMITOMO MITSUI FINL.

Other Forecasting Options for SUMITOMO

For every potential investor in SUMITOMO, whether a beginner or expert, SUMITOMO's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SUMITOMO Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SUMITOMO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SUMITOMO's price trends.

SUMITOMO Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SUMITOMO bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SUMITOMO could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SUMITOMO by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

SUMITOMO MITSUI FINL Technical and Predictive Analytics

The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SUMITOMO's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SUMITOMO's current price.

SUMITOMO Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SUMITOMO bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SUMITOMO shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SUMITOMO bond market strength indicators, traders can identify SUMITOMO MITSUI FINL entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

SUMITOMO Risk Indicators

The analysis of SUMITOMO's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SUMITOMO's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sumitomo bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of SUMITOMO MITSUI FINL bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in SUMITOMO Bond

SUMITOMO financial ratios help investors to determine whether SUMITOMO Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SUMITOMO with respect to the benefits of owning SUMITOMO security.