Universal Health Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

WY8 Stock  EUR 38.68  0.06  0.16%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Universal Health Realty on the next trading day is expected to be 38.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.61. Universal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Universal Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Universal Health simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Universal Health Realty are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Universal Health Realty prices get older.

Universal Health Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Universal Health Realty on the next trading day is expected to be 38.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Universal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Universal Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Universal Health Stock Forecast Pattern

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Universal Health Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Universal Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Universal Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.95 and 40.41, respectively. We have considered Universal Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
38.68
38.68
Expected Value
40.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Universal Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Universal Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.273
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0461
MADMean absolute deviation0.4854
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0125
SAESum of the absolute errors29.61
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Universal Health Realty forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Universal Health observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Universal Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Health Realty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
36.8938.6240.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
36.9438.6740.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
35.9538.2240.49
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Universal Health

For every potential investor in Universal, whether a beginner or expert, Universal Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Universal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Universal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Universal Health's price trends.

Universal Health Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Universal Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Universal Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Universal Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Universal Health Realty Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Universal Health's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Universal Health's current price.

Universal Health Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Universal Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Universal Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Universal Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Universal Health Realty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Universal Health Risk Indicators

The analysis of Universal Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting universal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Universal Stock

When determining whether Universal Health Realty is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Universal Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Universal Health Realty Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Universal Health Realty Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal Health to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Universal Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Universal Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Universal Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.