Yum Brands Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| YUM Stock | USD 138.94 0.39 0.28% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Yum Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 139.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.29. Yum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Yum Brands' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Yum Brands' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Yum Brands fundamentals over time.
Yum |
Yum Brands Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Yum Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 139.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59, mean absolute percentage error of 4.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Yum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Yum Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Yum Brands Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Yum Brands | Yum Brands Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Yum Brands Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Yum Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Yum Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 138.23 and 140.34, respectively. We have considered Yum Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Yum Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Yum Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4314 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5853 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0118 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 98.2911 |
Predictive Modules for Yum Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Yum Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Yum Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Yum Brands
For every potential investor in Yum, whether a beginner or expert, Yum Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Yum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Yum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Yum Brands' price trends.Yum Brands Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Yum Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Yum Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Yum Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Yum Brands Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Yum Brands' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Yum Brands' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Yum Brands Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Yum Brands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Yum Brands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Yum Brands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Yum Brands entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7631.41 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.37) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 138.82 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 138.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.39) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 64.93 |
Yum Brands Risk Indicators
The analysis of Yum Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Yum Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting yum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.786 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8891 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Variance | 1.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8855 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7906 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yum Brands to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Yum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Yum Brands guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Yum Brands. If investors know Yum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Yum Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 0.67 | Earnings Share 5.35 | Revenue Per Share 25.636 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.069 |
The market value of Yum Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Yum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Yum Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Yum Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Yum Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Yum Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Yum Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Yum Brands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Yum Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.