ChengDu Hi (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.1

000628 Stock   60.08  0.59  0.99%   
ChengDu Hi's future price is the expected price of ChengDu Hi instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of ChengDu Hi Tech Development performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out ChengDu Hi Backtesting, ChengDu Hi Valuation, ChengDu Hi Correlation, ChengDu Hi Hype Analysis, ChengDu Hi Volatility, ChengDu Hi History as well as ChengDu Hi Performance.
  
Please specify ChengDu Hi's target price for which you would like ChengDu Hi odds to be computed.

ChengDu Hi Target Price Odds to finish over 15.1

The tendency of ChengDu Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  15.10  in 90 days
 60.08 90 days 15.10 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ChengDu Hi to stay above  15.10  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This ChengDu Hi Tech Development probability density function shows the probability of ChengDu Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ChengDu Hi Tech price to stay between  15.10  and its current price of 60.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.71 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ChengDu Hi Tech Development has a beta of -0.0871. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ChengDu Hi are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ChengDu Hi Tech Development is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ChengDu Hi Tech Development has an alpha of 0.8439, implying that it can generate a 0.84 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   ChengDu Hi Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for ChengDu Hi

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ChengDu Hi Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
55.3360.0864.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
43.2347.9866.09
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
59.8164.5669.31
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ChengDu Hi. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ChengDu Hi's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ChengDu Hi's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ChengDu Hi Tech.

ChengDu Hi Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ChengDu Hi is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ChengDu Hi's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ChengDu Hi Tech Development, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ChengDu Hi within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.84
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.09
σ
Overall volatility
11.66
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

ChengDu Hi Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ChengDu Hi for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ChengDu Hi Tech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ChengDu Hi Tech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
ChengDu Hi Tech is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
ChengDu Hi generates negative cash flow from operations
About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

ChengDu Hi Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ChengDu Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ChengDu Hi's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ChengDu Hi's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding352.3 M
Dividends Paid89.5 M
Forward Annual Dividend Rate0.15

ChengDu Hi Technical Analysis

ChengDu Hi's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ChengDu Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ChengDu Hi Tech Development. In general, you should focus on analyzing ChengDu Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

ChengDu Hi Predictive Forecast Models

ChengDu Hi's time-series forecasting models is one of many ChengDu Hi's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ChengDu Hi's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about ChengDu Hi Tech

Checking the ongoing alerts about ChengDu Hi for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ChengDu Hi Tech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ChengDu Hi Tech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
ChengDu Hi Tech is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
ChengDu Hi generates negative cash flow from operations
About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Other Information on Investing in ChengDu Stock

ChengDu Hi financial ratios help investors to determine whether ChengDu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ChengDu with respect to the benefits of owning ChengDu Hi security.