Rongsheng Petrochemical (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.48
| 002493 Stock | 9.15 0.07 0.76% |
Rongsheng |
Rongsheng Petrochemical Target Price Odds to finish below 11.48
The tendency of Rongsheng Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 11.48 after 90 days |
| 9.15 | 90 days | 11.48 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Rongsheng Petrochemical to stay under 11.48 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Rongsheng Petrochemical Co probability density function shows the probability of Rongsheng Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Rongsheng Petrochemical price to stay between its current price of 9.15 and 11.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.02 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Rongsheng Petrochemical has a beta of 0.18. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Rongsheng Petrochemical average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Rongsheng Petrochemical Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Rongsheng Petrochemical Co has an alpha of 0.1833, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Rongsheng Petrochemical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Rongsheng Petrochemical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rongsheng Petrochemical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Rongsheng Petrochemical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Rongsheng Petrochemical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Rongsheng Petrochemical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Rongsheng Petrochemical Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Rongsheng Petrochemical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Rongsheng Petrochemical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Rongsheng Petrochemical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Rongsheng Petrochemical can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Rongsheng Petrochemical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Rongsheng Petrochemical has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Rongsheng Petrochemical shareholders have endured a 45 percent loss from investing in the stock three years ago - Simply Wall St |
Rongsheng Petrochemical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Rongsheng Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Rongsheng Petrochemical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rongsheng Petrochemical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.4 B |
Rongsheng Petrochemical Technical Analysis
Rongsheng Petrochemical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Rongsheng Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Rongsheng Petrochemical Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Rongsheng Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Rongsheng Petrochemical Predictive Forecast Models
Rongsheng Petrochemical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Rongsheng Petrochemical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Rongsheng Petrochemical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Rongsheng Petrochemical
Checking the ongoing alerts about Rongsheng Petrochemical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Rongsheng Petrochemical help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Rongsheng Petrochemical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Rongsheng Petrochemical has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Rongsheng Petrochemical shareholders have endured a 45 percent loss from investing in the stock three years ago - Simply Wall St |
Other Information on Investing in Rongsheng Stock
Rongsheng Petrochemical financial ratios help investors to determine whether Rongsheng Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Rongsheng with respect to the benefits of owning Rongsheng Petrochemical security.