Changzhou Almaden (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 18.36

002623 Stock   18.36  0.10  0.55%   
Changzhou Almaden's future price is the expected price of Changzhou Almaden instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Changzhou Almaden Co performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Changzhou Almaden Backtesting, Changzhou Almaden Valuation, Changzhou Almaden Correlation, Changzhou Almaden Hype Analysis, Changzhou Almaden Volatility, Changzhou Almaden History as well as Changzhou Almaden Performance.
  
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Changzhou Almaden Target Price Odds to finish over 18.36

The tendency of Changzhou Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 18.36 90 days 18.36 
about 14.01
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Changzhou Almaden to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 14.01 (This Changzhou Almaden Co probability density function shows the probability of Changzhou Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Changzhou Almaden Co has a beta of -0.44. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Changzhou Almaden are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Changzhou Almaden Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Changzhou Almaden Co has an alpha of 0.4078, implying that it can generate a 0.41 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Changzhou Almaden Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Changzhou Almaden

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Changzhou Almaden. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.1518.2621.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.4514.5620.09
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
16.0919.2022.32
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.150.150.15
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Changzhou Almaden. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Changzhou Almaden's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Changzhou Almaden's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Changzhou Almaden.

Changzhou Almaden Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Changzhou Almaden is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Changzhou Almaden's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Changzhou Almaden Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Changzhou Almaden within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.41
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.44
σ
Overall volatility
1.50
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

Changzhou Almaden Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Changzhou Almaden for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Changzhou Almaden can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Changzhou Almaden had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 43.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Changzhou Almaden Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Changzhou Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Changzhou Almaden's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Changzhou Almaden's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding199.1 M

Changzhou Almaden Technical Analysis

Changzhou Almaden's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Changzhou Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Changzhou Almaden Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Changzhou Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Changzhou Almaden Predictive Forecast Models

Changzhou Almaden's time-series forecasting models is one of many Changzhou Almaden's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Changzhou Almaden's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Changzhou Almaden

Checking the ongoing alerts about Changzhou Almaden for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Changzhou Almaden help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Changzhou Almaden had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 43.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Other Information on Investing in Changzhou Stock

Changzhou Almaden financial ratios help investors to determine whether Changzhou Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Changzhou with respect to the benefits of owning Changzhou Almaden security.