POLENERGIA (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.47
| 06Y Stock | EUR 15.95 0.20 1.24% |
POLENERGIA |
POLENERGIA Target Price Odds to finish below 16.47
The tendency of POLENERGIA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 16.47 after 90 days |
| 15.95 | 90 days | 16.47 | about 52.56 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of POLENERGIA to stay under € 16.47 after 90 days from now is about 52.56 (This POLENERGIA SA ZY probability density function shows the probability of POLENERGIA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of POLENERGIA SA ZY price to stay between its current price of € 15.95 and € 16.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.75 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon POLENERGIA SA ZY has a beta of -0.14. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding POLENERGIA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, POLENERGIA SA ZY is likely to outperform the market. Additionally POLENERGIA SA ZY has an alpha of 0.0547, implying that it can generate a 0.0547 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). POLENERGIA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for POLENERGIA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as POLENERGIA SA ZY. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.POLENERGIA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. POLENERGIA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the POLENERGIA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold POLENERGIA SA ZY, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of POLENERGIA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
POLENERGIA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of POLENERGIA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for POLENERGIA SA ZY can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
POLENERGIA Technical Analysis
POLENERGIA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. POLENERGIA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of POLENERGIA SA ZY. In general, you should focus on analyzing POLENERGIA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
POLENERGIA Predictive Forecast Models
POLENERGIA's time-series forecasting models is one of many POLENERGIA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary POLENERGIA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about POLENERGIA SA ZY
Checking the ongoing alerts about POLENERGIA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for POLENERGIA SA ZY help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in POLENERGIA Stock
POLENERGIA financial ratios help investors to determine whether POLENERGIA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in POLENERGIA with respect to the benefits of owning POLENERGIA security.