MASI AGRICOLA (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.42
| 0CY Stock | EUR 4.23 0.08 1.93% |
MASI |
MASI AGRICOLA Target Price Odds to finish below 4.42
The tendency of MASI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 4.42 after 90 days |
| 4.23 | 90 days | 4.42 | about 81.21 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MASI AGRICOLA to stay under € 4.42 after 90 days from now is about 81.21 (This MASI AGRICOLA SPA probability density function shows the probability of MASI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MASI AGRICOLA SPA price to stay between its current price of € 4.23 and € 4.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.73 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon MASI AGRICOLA SPA has a beta of -0.29. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding MASI AGRICOLA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, MASI AGRICOLA SPA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally MASI AGRICOLA SPA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MASI AGRICOLA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MASI AGRICOLA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MASI AGRICOLA SPA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MASI AGRICOLA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MASI AGRICOLA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MASI AGRICOLA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MASI AGRICOLA SPA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MASI AGRICOLA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
MASI AGRICOLA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MASI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MASI AGRICOLA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MASI AGRICOLA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0172 | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.08 |
MASI AGRICOLA Technical Analysis
MASI AGRICOLA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MASI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MASI AGRICOLA SPA. In general, you should focus on analyzing MASI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MASI AGRICOLA Predictive Forecast Models
MASI AGRICOLA's time-series forecasting models is one of many MASI AGRICOLA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MASI AGRICOLA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards MASI AGRICOLA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, MASI AGRICOLA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from MASI AGRICOLA options trading.
Other Information on Investing in MASI Stock
MASI AGRICOLA financial ratios help investors to determine whether MASI Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MASI with respect to the benefits of owning MASI AGRICOLA security.