Coronation Capital (South Africa) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 55.77
| 0P0000IR6J | 57.36 0.21 0.36% |
Coronation |
Coronation Capital Target Price Odds to finish below 55.77
The tendency of Coronation Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 55.77 or more in 90 days |
| 57.36 | 90 days | 55.77 | about 49.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Coronation Capital to drop to 55.77 or more in 90 days from now is about 49.81 (This Coronation Capital Plus probability density function shows the probability of Coronation Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Coronation Capital Plus price to stay between 55.77 and its current price of 57.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 43.59 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Coronation Capital has a beta of 0.11. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Coronation Capital average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Coronation Capital Plus will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Coronation Capital Plus has an alpha of 0.0755, implying that it can generate a 0.0755 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Coronation Capital Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Coronation Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coronation Capital Plus. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Coronation Capital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Coronation Capital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Coronation Capital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Coronation Capital Plus, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Coronation Capital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Coronation Capital Technical Analysis
Coronation Capital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Coronation Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Coronation Capital Plus. In general, you should focus on analyzing Coronation Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Coronation Capital Predictive Forecast Models
Coronation Capital's time-series forecasting models is one of many Coronation Capital's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Coronation Capital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Coronation Capital in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Coronation Capital's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Coronation Capital options trading.
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