Absa Prudential (South Africa) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 4.67
| 0P000182JS | 4.38 0.01 0.23% |
Absa |
Absa Prudential Target Price Odds to finish over 4.67
The tendency of Absa Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 4.67 or more in 90 days |
| 4.38 | 90 days | 4.67 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Absa Prudential to move over 4.67 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Absa Prudential probability density function shows the probability of Absa Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Absa Prudential price to stay between its current price of 4.38 and 4.67 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.69 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Absa Prudential has a beta of 0.12. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Absa Prudential average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Absa Prudential will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Absa Prudential has an alpha of 0.04, implying that it can generate a 0.04 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Absa Prudential Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Absa Prudential
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Absa Prudential. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Absa Prudential Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Absa Prudential is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Absa Prudential's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Absa Prudential, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Absa Prudential within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Absa Prudential Technical Analysis
Absa Prudential's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Absa Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Absa Prudential. In general, you should focus on analyzing Absa Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Absa Prudential Predictive Forecast Models
Absa Prudential's time-series forecasting models is one of many Absa Prudential's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Absa Prudential's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Absa Prudential in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Absa Prudential's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Absa Prudential options trading.
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