Amazon (UK) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 169.98
| 0R1O Stock | 225.50 5.00 2.17% |
Amazon |
Amazon Target Price Odds to finish over 169.98
The tendency of Amazon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 169.98 in 90 days |
| 225.50 | 90 days | 169.98 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Amazon to stay above 169.98 in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Amazon Inc probability density function shows the probability of Amazon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Amazon Inc price to stay between 169.98 and its current price of 225.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.82 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Amazon has a beta of 0.0932. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Amazon average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Amazon Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Amazon Inc has an alpha of 0.2804, implying that it can generate a 0.28 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Amazon Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Amazon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amazon Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Amazon Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Amazon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Amazon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Amazon Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Amazon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 15.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Amazon Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Amazon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Amazon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amazon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Short Term Investments | 59.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 96 B |
Amazon Technical Analysis
Amazon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Amazon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amazon Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Amazon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Amazon Predictive Forecast Models
Amazon's time-series forecasting models is one of many Amazon's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Amazon's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Amazon in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Amazon's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Amazon options trading.
Additional Tools for Amazon Stock Analysis
When running Amazon's price analysis, check to measure Amazon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amazon is operating at the current time. Most of Amazon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amazon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amazon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amazon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.