China (Taiwan) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 82.91

2204 Stock  TWD 85.10  0.30  0.35%   
China's future price is the expected price of China instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of China Motor Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out China Backtesting, China Valuation, China Correlation, China Hype Analysis, China Volatility, China History as well as China Performance.
  
Please specify China's target price for which you would like China odds to be computed.

China Target Price Odds to finish below 82.91

The tendency of China Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to NT$ 82.91  or more in 90 days
 85.10 90 days 82.91 
over 95.91
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China to drop to NT$ 82.91  or more in 90 days from now is over 95.91 (This China Motor Corp probability density function shows the probability of China Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Motor Corp price to stay between NT$ 82.91  and its current price of NT$85.1 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.41 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon China has a beta of 0.07. This suggests as returns on the market go up, China average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Motor Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China Motor Corp has an alpha of 0.1302, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   China Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for China

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Motor Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
82.2684.8087.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
66.2668.8093.28
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
80.3782.9185.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
77.7182.3787.04
Details

China Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Motor Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.13
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.07
σ
Overall volatility
5.61
Ir
Information ratio 0.01

China Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Motor Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

China Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding553.6 M

China Technical Analysis

China's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Motor Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

China Predictive Forecast Models

China's time-series forecasting models is one of many China's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about China Motor Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about China for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Motor Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Additional Tools for China Stock Analysis

When running China's price analysis, check to measure China's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China is operating at the current time. Most of China's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.